EO4TIP: A new Earth observation methodology to improve anticipation of abrupt changes and reduce environmental risks

Our planet exhibits behaviour that challenges the expectation of smooth, predictable and reversible change with the reality of sudden, unexpected and potentially irreversible changes caused by climate variations, anthropogenic pressures and degradation processes. Tipping points (TPs) and abrupt changes in the Earth system are possibly the most significant risk in a transforming world, as they threaten the environment, society and the economy. Identifying, monitoring and analysing these phenomena is crucial for driving adaptation and mitigation strategies.

In this context, the EO4TIP project (Earth Observation in a changing world threatened by Tipping Points) has emerged. It aims to move towards a new Earth Observation (EO) paradigm called Remote Sensing v3.0. The project develops methodologies to detect, monitor and analyse tipping points and abrupt changes using past, current and future satellite missions, and lays the foundations for a monitoring system that is especially useful at local and regional scale. It also promotes new instrumental concepts to improve spatial monitoring and raises awareness of the importance of this type of monitoring among the scientific community, stakeholders and society.

The contribution of the Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya - BarcelonaTech (UPC) team focuses on exploiting high-resolution Earth Observation data, especially synthetic aperture radar (SAR), and applying it to terrestrial environments. SAR is an active remote sensing technology that generates images of the Earth’s surface using radio waves emitted from satellites or aircraft. Unlike optical sensors, SAR can operate day and night and in any weather conditions, providing relevant information on the physical properties of the terrain. These capabilities make it possible to analyse rapid change dynamics in the terrestrial component of the Earth system, such as soil moisture, crop condition, deforestation, ecosystem degradation, floods, fires, landslides and ground deformation. It is also useful in marine applications, such as monitoring waves, sea ice and ocean winds.

Within the project, the UPC will work to make better use of SAR’s multi-scale capacity, which remains underused in many areas, and to combine it with L-band radiometry. This passive remote sensing technique measures the natural microwave radiation emitted by the Earth’s surface in a given frequency band, and is particularly suitable for estimating variables that other sensors find more difficult to capture, such as soil moisture, vegetation water content and sea-surface salinity.

The integration of SAR data and L-band radiometry should enable more robust estimates of terrestrial variables and improve the monitoring of complex environmental processes. This opens up new opportunities in areas such as natural risk analysis, the detection of ecological degradation processes and the study of interactions between soil, vegetation and territory.

In parallel, the UPC will also explore the relationship between the Total Electron Content of the ionosphere derived from SMOS and seismic activity, with the aim of advancing new concepts for observing and anticipating abrupt phenomena.

This line of work builds on a well-established history of collaboration between the Spanish National Research Council (CSIC) and the UPC within the Barcelona Expert Center, which began around the SMOS mission. This joint experience has made it possible to evolve from fundamental products, such as sea-surface salinity and soil moisture, towards higher added-value products such as sea-ice concentration, the fire-risk index and ocean vector winds.

Budget and Funding

EO4TIP is a competitive project funded by the Spanish State Research Agency, within the framework of the 2021-2023 State Plan for Scientific, Technical and Innovation Research, under the State Programme to Promote Scientific and Technical Research and its Transfer and the State Subprogramme for Knowledge Generation (PID2023-149659OB-C22). The project is being carried out in consortium with the Spanish National Research Council (CSIC), through the Institut de Ciències del Mar (ICM-CSIC), with a joint budget of €414,000. It will run for 3 years (September 2024 - December 2027).